Posts from — September 2010

The view from our Managing Partner in New York…

Google Instant does something that Eric, Sergey and Larry have promised from Google’s beginning – make search more intuitive to the point where it can anticipate your search.  Now, with results coming in real time as you type, the user is met with quicker responses to their queries.  Google’s initial claim is that it will shave 2 to 5 seconds per search as a result of the page, providing answers to consumers’ queries that much faster than before.  If search is effective largely because it presents an answer at the exact moment you’re seeking information, Google Instant is the next generation of that promise.

Why the change?

But is that why Google is doing it?  Regardless of Google’s claims, I don’t believe that users were demanding time and productivity savings.  If anything, it could be argued that Google Instant’s functionality could slow down the experience, especially on non-broadband computers.  While Google says they have introduced Instant as a way to get even closer to that stated goal of anticipating a user’s needs, I’m curious if that’s their prime motivation.

What will Google Instant mean?

For advertisers, one consequence of instantly providing users with results as they type means that it becomes extremely important to optimize campaigns against the terms they might be typing in first.  To put it simply, advertisers should now focus on having strong exposure on general, head keywords instead of a mix of head, mid, and long tail keywords.  If you have first position in either Organic or Paid rankings for the broadest possible terms (i.e., “Moving”, “Jeans”, “Digital Cameras.”) you will now enjoy the benefits of getting presented earlier and more often.  Businesses that have made their living on the long tail will now be presented with increased competition – not just on their exact keywords, but on all the keywords that make up that phrase. The net result is that there will be increase in bidding activity against those broad terms, forcing advertisers to choose between the value of increased potential exposure and clicks versus the higher prices that those clicks will now bear. In short, as an advertiser, do I get ROI by bidding up the chain of commonly trafficked keywords in order to ensure I’m capturing consumers as early as possible?

Questions, questions…

So it’s obvious that these changes will minimize the importance of having a broad and deep long tail keyword list in both paid and organic search.  But it brings up a host of further questions.  Before now, high volume terms might have been considered too broad or expensive to be profitable.  How far back search string do I need to move in order to capture consumer attention?  Will Google grant us access to an API that shows us the highest volume keywords in the proper order and combinations?  Will the potentially higher volume make up for the lack of click throughs, decreased conversions and higher costs?   Or conversely, will conversions actually improve as consumers select pages that best meet their needs?

I also wonder about how there will be changes to the famed “golden triangle” of consumer attention.  Google Instant now forces users to primarily pay attention to the very top of the page and then shift their attention downwards.  I’m curious if the ad positions on the right hand side will see decreased performance due to the new presentation dynamic.  This leads to even more attention being placed on the top two or three results – the most costly real estate on the page.

The net result

Google says the net result of Instant is ostensibly about the consumer experience.  But the real reason why Google made such a significant change is that it puts the emphasis on the types of keywords that cost the most money and are searched against most often.  While Google Instant might anticipate my search needs, it doesn’t take an algorithm to anticipate higher profits for Google as a result.

Mark Schwartz
Managing Partner, Steak U.S.

Comedy capers around Covent Garden this Friday afternoon with an impromptu scavenger hunt!

Congratulations to the winning team – Dan, Gabriel, Richard and Aoife (pictured below successfuly completing the ‘take a picture of the team with Bruce the Bull and a London cab and a red bus’ challenge). Special mention also to sister comany Minute Steak’s Johnny Dunkley whose pint downing was really quite impressive.

Yesterday I posted a FAQ on Google Instant and discussed if consumers will hate it.

Today I’m going to look at what this might mean for campaigns; the reality is nobody will know for sure until they have gathered data over a decent period of time, roll-out has finished to eligible computers – and consumers have got used to the feature.

US and UK Rollout – A Big Difference

Below are my thoughts from a UK point of view – Steak NYC will be posting their thoughts shortly, too. There is already an important US to UK difference – in the UK, you have to be logged in to a Google Account for Instant to work; in the US, all consumers will see it if their browser etc supports it.

Here are my (UK centric) thoughts:

Impressions on Generic Terms to Rise?

The idea is simple; as consumers start typing, they may be driven by Google’s suggestions to use generics more (either by clicking through, or by reading search results for more than the 3 seconds Google requires to count an impression). I’m not so sure this will happen – see my comments on the long tail below – and I think this would provide consumers less relevant results; a real threat to Google’s loyal user base who love it’s relevancy.

Impressions on Brand Terms to Rise?

I’ve seen a lot of brands appear in results when I start typing – for example “e” brings up eBay results, potentially increasing impressions for this brand term. The same is true of many other letters in the UK and US, and no doubt this spreads to other brands 2 or 3 letters into typing.

If a consumer is starting to type in a non-brand search, and happens to be shown a relevant brand by Instant, then there is the possibility they will go to that site straight away – robbing competitors of the opportunity to compete for them in “normal” non-brand search results.

Brand CPCs to Rise?

This may well happen because of the knock-on affect of more impressions without a click as a result of the above, affecting brands whom are shown for searches where they receive no click – but do have an impression counted against them. However, if the market as a whole experiences this, the competitive affects may be limited – everybody will have the same experience.

Long Tail to Suffer?

I’ve seen a lot of commentary stating that the long tail will suffer, and even that businesses that receive most of their traffic and sales via it will die.

If Google can show search results within a few letters that are relevant compared to the long(er) tail query the consumer was going to type in, then some long tail queries will be diverted onto generic terms of one or two words. However – so far – I’ve rarely had this experience when searching with Instant. No doubt Google will improve the algorithm – it is only day 2, after all.

The more I consider this and talk to colleagues, the less likely this seems, so…

Long Tail To Grow around Suggested Search Strings?

Consumers who are typing in a long tail search know they need to use several words to find what they are looking for – they are taking deliberate action based on past experience. Will they suddenly abandon that behaviour because Google is showing them search results as they type the first few letters? I don’t think many will – if anything, they will “type past” Google’s suggestions to the results they want (i.e. that are relevant) – and maybe add to/edit the long tail search as they see the results it generates. Something they probably would have done anyway, over several distinct searches on the “old” Google.

So long tail might grow – as more consumers notice that the search results change as they type and they think more explicitly about what they are typing, they may be driven to enter more words to refine their search or use the suggested search terms that seem relevant. This would raise long term volumes and, for suggested searches, effectively push consumers onto “predefined” search strings with all the impact increased competition on a term brings for advertisers.

More Keywords To Add?

Google Instant may mean that some consumers start to click through on “half-formed” search terms – e.g. somebody who was going to type in “home insurance” clicking through on a site shown for “home ins”. This may in affect create new keywords to add to campaigns, researched by brainstorming or reviewing analytics/tracking alongside the normal keyword tools. Match type settings will play a part in this coverage, too, for paid search campaigns, and I imagine that Google will ensure broad match covers some of these searches off.

Ranking Even More Important?

As consumers quickly scan results as they type, sites below the fold won’t get any opportunity to catch their eye and draw their click – somebody typing isn’t scrolling. So ranking above the fold will be important in this situation.

Dust-Off Abandoned Generics

A very interesting point Mark in our New York office has made is that brands may need to look at increasing exposure on generic (aka head) terms to ensure they are ranked well for the first term consumers will see results for as they type; so there could well be increased competition for generic, one-word terms. It may be worth re-considering generics previously removed from keyword lists because of high CPCs/competition across paid/ natural search…

Conclusion

I don’t think a fundamental shift to generic terms will occur; I’m increasingly thinking that consumers will start to click through from longer search strings, either by clicking on a search suggestion or typing more words in; if anything Instant will prompt them to improve the way they search.

However, the jury is still out and I know colleagues here at Steak and elsewhere in the industry have different opinions…

So I could be wrong – for all the technology, commentary and gut instinct we all collectively have, consumers can be notoriously unpredictable and the ultimate test will only be time – and data. I can see a long Excel session coming on…

UPDATE:

Our sister agency Minute Steak have also been blogging about Google Instant during it’s beta testing and also their thoughts on the launch and its implications.

Today and last night were for me examples of the digital industry at both it’s best – and it’s worst.

Some bloggers and publications published their initial intelligent thoughts on what Google Instant actually means for brands and marketers; those posts are continuing as ideas crystallize and we all play with this new feature. Other blog posts and Twitter streams, sadly, were full of the sort of nonsense and noise that frustrates me with the industry – things like “SEO is dead” and “CPCs will sky rocket”.

No doubt it’s a busy day for our friends in Buckingham Palace Road and other Google offices.

There’s one group I’ve not seen widely discussed or asked their opinion. Those faceless, anonymous little devils called consumers whom, ultimately, generate the activity that keeps us all employed.

Change is bad?

Change is something that most of us struggle with at times. Whilst Instant Search isn’t a complete redesign of the Google interface, it is a shock the first time it jumps you from the Google homepage to search results changing-as-you-type (known forever more as “interstitial search results”). For some consumers, I’d imagine this could be an unwelcome change. I tweeted the reaction of a 30 something friend who doesn’t work in the marketing industry earlier today:

One reaction to Google Instant: "Turn it off, it's in the way"

I also wonder if there won’t be some users calling their IT departments saying “A virus has taken over my PC, it’s hijacking Google and changing the results” or similar. After all, past Google changes have prompted calls like this. Perhaps that’s why Google made announcing this change an “event” and ensured major press coverage and therefore consumer education globally?

Bing to Gain?

Changing an interface – on software or a site – is always a risky. Just think of the changes Microsoft introduced moving from the Office menu system to the “ribbon” in Office 2007. Many hated it, complained they couldn’t find things and wanted to roll back to 2003; we experienced that here with some colleagues. A change Microsoft believed was “good” was in fact “bad” for many to begin with, because it got in the way of them completing their task.

So do I, as some have speculated elsewhere, think Bing will gain users as they abandon “annoying” Google that is now getting in the way of them searching and – vitally – finding?

No, is the simple answer. A minority may move – but I’d suggest they were going to, anyway; most consumers have strong loyalty to their chosen engine out of sheer habit and roll with any interface changes (if they even register them consciously). Some consumers will turn Google Instant off of course; but I think most will “roll with it”, as they did search suggestions, the new Google interface of earlier this year and other changes over the years.

According to numbers from StatsCounter.com, in the UK only just over 50% of browsers will work with Google Instant (data from Q1 to Sept 2010) so a lot of consumers will not use this feature until they upgrade – or will see it at home but not in corporate environments where older browsers are standard because internal systems don’t work with the latest versions of IE, FireFox et al. That’s interesting in itself – will they notice, or care enough to find out why (or complain to IT?)

Some Consumers Will Love It

Whilst writing this, I recieved an email from a colleague in a non-search role with their thoughts:

Positive reaction to Google Instant Search

(Thanks to MM for this)

So, some consumers will love this feature – and, most interestingly, it may expose them to not only new search strings but completely different topics and the results related to them when searching.

That might be good for some sites and drive more traffic; but if consumers hover to read the suggested searches and results for more than 3 seconds, the adwords advertiser whose ads have been shown will record an ad impression, potentially reducing their CTR and quality score.

Right now, we’re on a watching brief – seeing how consumers react, and how this actually impacts campaigns.

I’ve asked friends and colleagues to send me their reaction to this – I’ll post them here as comments if I receive more.

This blog post is more of a FAQ on Google’s new feature Instant Search; I’ll be following up with my take on what this might mean for Google, search marketers, clients – and the group everybody seems to be forgetting in the industry press – consumers.

Q: What is Google Instant?

This is a new feature on Google’s interface, only available on the most recent version of web browsers (see below). The Google Adwords FAQ is here.

When a consumer searches, GI will change search results as you type, as well as changing the suggested searches (which already happen). These are based on past consumer search queries, your location and past searches (i.e. personalization).

During the process, Google uses an algorithm to predict what a user means and shows results accordingly – e.g. typing “holid” may mean results for “holidays” appear – see image 1 attached.

An example:

An example of Google UK Instant Search results for "Florida holid"

Q: Why have Google launched this?

Google’s stated reasons:

- faster searches
- helps guide users to searches
- users see results without clicking a button / hitting return and can refine their query as they type based on the results

I also believe this is part of their ongoing efforts to step-up to competing with Bing, whom are focused on interface developments to aid consumers and gain marketshare.

Q: Which Browsers?

This will only work on the latest browser versions in the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Russia: Chrome v5/6, Firefox v3, Safari v5 for Mac and Internet Explorer v8.

If you used Google over the last few days and saw different “swirling” logos, then your browser is compatible.

You can enable it here if not seeing it: http://www.google.com/webhp?sclient=psy

Q: When doesn’t it work?

It won’t work on:

• older browsers
• toolbars
• the address bar
• browser search boxes
• iGoogle
• if you disabled Google autocomplete
• if you disable it via the drop down to the right of the search box marked “Instant”
• if use the SSL version of Google search

Many consumers use the first three without thinking; this will limit impact for the initial search in a session – but not once on Google itself. Google may add this to toolbars etc in future, of course.

Q: What are UK Browser Market Shares?

To give context to whom will see this:

• IE8 – 32%
• FireFox 3.x – 21%
• Chrome 5/6 – 2%
• Safari 5 – 0.19%

= 55.19% of the UK will potentially see this. Source: Statcounter.com

It’s worth noting many corporates use older browsers that don’t support this – including most of the UK Government, many utilities firms and finance companies….so consumers will be getting one experience, and another at work in some cases.

I’ll explain how I think this will affect search and consumers in a follow up post shortly.

A great video presentation from David McCandless. We’ll all be familiar with the challenge of trying to explain the data that we generate for the our clients from campaigns that we run for them.  Perhaps we’re approaching this in entirely the wrong way… greater levels of visualisation could be a way for us to tell more compelling stories for our client about how successful the campaign has been (and by implication how great we are at our jobs).

I particularly like the “timeline of global media panic”

http://www.ted.com/talks/david_mccandless_the_beauty_of_data_visualization.html

Enjoy,

Phil

Phil Burgess Head of Client Services